Why Norwich were successful

Over the last 10 games Norwich have done the unexpected for Premier League newcomers and reached the illustrious 40 point mark; apparently guaranteeing PL survival (this has to be questioned though). Their form over the past 10 games reads 4-2-4 (w-d-l), and Grant Holt has received much of the media attention for his goalscoring, the second best english man in the PL on 15 goals behind Wayne Rooney. 

From our research however, it is not Holt’s performance’s that contribute most to their success and their winning. Its is down to purely defensive attributes, more specifically, total clearances, successful clearances and successful headed clearances. Notice how, in the graphs below, the more clearances, the higher the chance of winning and this is reflected in team results. 

About

To summarise, win probability is highest when total clearances reaches an output of 50-60, the win probability for this output is 0.6 to 0.8 (60-80%). A drawn result is at its highest when total clearances achieves 32-40, the drawn probability is still low (.36 or 36%), but still it takes the majority as a win and loss at this output would be around 32%. 

On the second set of graphs however (win vs successful headed clearances), there are a few losses noted (red dots). These can be explained on the graph below-win vs successful headed clearances whether at home or away.

So although, Norwich have a high chance of winning when they complete successful headed clearances, they still on occasion lose games. Notably though, when observing total clearances, there are few losses. So although Norwich may perform well in headed clearances, they may perform better in total clearances, or ground clearances, the later an uncoded type of clearance and this supports the winning of the match. Its is also worth taking into account home advantage however, as losses under successful clearance seem to occur away from home. 

You can see the related graphs above in more detail, with no line of best fit for all match outcomes-Norwich Winning Attributes.

Goalscoring

Norwich have three some positive offensive variables that link to their goalscoring. They maybe variables clubs already assess players on to increase their chances of scoring. The variables are; total final third passes, the obvious shots on target and assists from set play. 

These 3 variables alone account for 65% of Norwich goalscoring, a tremendous amount. What would be interesting to see is if Norwich sign players on these variables and even if teams playing Norwich commit to high-pressure defending, forcing the clearance to be unsuccessful.